Brave New Statistics



There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and government statistics. The Census Bureau’s annual economic report, issued earlier this fall, showed a small jump in the 2004 poverty rate from 2003. The study was is based on a national poverty line of $19,157. In New York during the same period, according to the Census Bureau, the poverty rate rose from 19 to 20.3 percent. The New York numbers are based on a local poverty rate of, drum roll please . . . $19,157.

Say what? Nineteen-one-five-seven? In New York, especially downstate, there is six-figure poverty, middle class poverty, and real poverty. Then, a bracket or two below that, is $19,157 for a family of four. Nineteen-one-five-seven is the seller’s realtor fee on a Tribeca studio apartment. Nineteen-one-five-seven will garage your car. Now all you have to do is get one and move in. Try an old VW Minibus. Nineteen-one-five-seven will get you a closet in what’s left of Bob Guccione’s place on East 67th Street. And not even a walk-in closet. You’ll share it with a pet, but not the Penthouse kind.

Nineteen-one-five-seven might have bought you the first five seconds of a mayoral campaign ad at the left end of the FM dial. Just enough to hear “I’m Mike Bloomberg,” but not quite enough to hear how well you’re doing. Nineteen-one-five-seven is Carrie Bradshaw’s shoe budget. It is Donald Trump’s hair. Nineteen-one-five-seven is the 2005 luxury tax on the two-bedroom apartment my parents vacated in 1983 for greener pastures. Nineteen-one-five-seven for a family of four may work in North Dakota. It will get them through a month in the Dakota. The last time $19,157 provided for a family of four in New York, 19 bucks got them four Yankee box seats.

These days, though, you just have to stretch it a little farther. If you’re careful, you can live off the 157 and bank the rest. Here are some tips: Cut down on non-necessities like food, clothing, and shelter. Nineteen-one-five-seven is a nice household budget if there is no household. Don’t spend it all on one hovel. Got 2.2 children? The point-two can thrive. And if it’s all too much, there is one place $19,157 goes a long way—jail. With room, board, and medical already taken care of, that money can be spent on some of the finer things in life, like protection.

Illinois Senator Barak Obama recently recalled how he couldn’t afford rent in the city as a Columbia student in the early 80s and, as a result, lived in eight different apartments. The big question is, could he afford one today? Way back in 1984, my first year out of college, I lived in a tiny Queens superintendent’s lounge rented out as a studio. I made almost precisely $19,157 working as an engineer for the NYC Department of Sanitation. There was plenty of garbage but little disposable income. I never hopped a turnstile, though I creatively visualized it many times. At least I didn’t have to worry about a wife and two kids. At $19,278, I was almost undatable.

Nineteen-one-five-seven—who comes up with this stuff? Why do we know it’s not someone trying to support a family of four in New York on $19,157? What we need right now is an intellectual poverty line. Whatever it is, the Census Bureau is on the wrong side of it by more than a point or two.

But perhaps something greater than sheer stupidity is at work here. Pat Moynihan once spoke of defining deviancy down. Now they’ve defined poverty down. As we speak, they’re reworking the definition of “cruel and unusual punishment.” Next on the list—global warming.



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©2003 by Rich Herschlag. All rights reserved.